Probability

Learning intention: What is the CCSSM progression ("storyline") for probability?

Success criteria:

Day Activity Topics / themesCCSSM Standards
1
  • Vocabulary
  • CCSS progression
  • Law of large numbers
  • Equiprobability bias and non-uniform probabilities
  • Introduce P() notation and axioms
  • CCSSM progressions
  • 7.SP.6
  • 7.SP.7
2
  • Technology to collect samples
  • Transition from experimental methods to theoretical models
  • 7.SP.5
  • 7.SP.7
  • 7.SP.8
3
  • Models: lists, tree, area, table, etc.
  • Compounded probabilities
  • 7.SP.5
  • 7.SP.7
  • 7.SP.8
4
  • Conditional probability
    • Progressions review
    • Introduce conditional probability
    • 99.8% accuracy
    • Three pancakes
    • Monty Hall
  • Conditional probability (independent vs dependent)
  • HS.S-CP.1-9
5
  • Expected values
  • Decision trees
  • HS.S-MD.1-7
6
  • Painted cube
  • History
  • LI/SC
  • Misconceptions
    • Equiprobability bias
    • Gambler's fallacy
    • Matching probabilities
    • Base rate fallacy:
      P(A | B) = P(B | A)
  • Misconceptions
  • n/a
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