# Probability

Learning intention: What is the CCSSM progression ("storyline") for probability?

Success criteria:

• I understand that probability addresses the likeliness of a random event.
• I can create a simulation to determine an approximate probability.
• I can use various techniques (counting, tables, trees, area models, technology, etc.) to determine the probability of events.
• I can identify and describe various misconceptions about probability.
Day Activity Topics / themesCCSSM Standards
1
• Vocabulary
• CCSS progression
• Law of large numbers
• Equiprobability bias and non-uniform probabilities
• Introduce P() notation and axioms
• CCSSM progressions
• 7.SP.6
• 7.SP.7
2
• Technology to collect samples
• Transition from experimental methods to theoretical models
• 7.SP.5
• 7.SP.7
• 7.SP.8
3
• Models: lists, tree, area, table, etc.
• Compounded probabilities
• 7.SP.5
• 7.SP.7
• 7.SP.8
4
• Conditional probability
• Progressions review
• Introduce conditional probability
• 99.8% accuracy
• Three pancakes
• Monty Hall
• Conditional probability (independent vs dependent)
• HS.S-CP.1-9
5
• Expected values
• Decision trees
• HS.S-MD.1-7
6
• Painted cube
• History
• LI/SC
• Misconceptions
• Equiprobability bias
• Gambler's fallacy
• Matching probabilities
• Base rate fallacy:
P(A | B) = P(B | A)
• Misconceptions
• n/a
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Other resources